Bill Bennett just said on his talk show that McCain’s #1 advantage in the general election is going to be that people who like him the least- people like me- will vote for him anyway. The implication is that people who don’t like Hillary will not vote for her, nor will Obama’s biggest detractors vote for him.
This would be nice if correct- but is this true though? First of all, I know lots of libertarian types who will never vote for McCain. However, I realize that this group represents a small fraction of the folks McCain needs to win over, and anyway, these same people wouldn’t vote for Hillary or Obama, either. Bennett is probably right about the majority of people who don’t care for McCain: the most conservative, townhall worldnetdaily dot commers. It’s certainly true of me. However there is a good chunk of folks- the ones Obama would probably refer to as bitter and clingy- who care very little for his positions on immigration and will absolutely stay home. How many of these are there?
Then there’s the other side of the comment. It is obvious that Obama supporters very much lack depth of vision and critical thinking- so it is not surprising to me that they would not vote for Hillary. Would they vote for the pro Iraq war McCain? On the surface it is tempting to say, “of course not; they’re anti war.” However I can name at least 3 people who I know personally that have told me directly they will vote McCain if Obama does not get the nomination. This makes absolutely no sense- but as I said, we’re talking about Obama supporters. Sense doesn’t enter into the equation. There is also the race aspect. Obama of course has incredibly high number among blacks, and those folks will be extremely upset of Hillary is perceived to have stolen the nomination from Obama via the super delegates.
Will Hill Rod supporters vote Obama in the general? I can’t intelligently comment on this one in a sweeping generalization; my sense is that it depends on why an individual is supporting Mrs. Clinton. Those folks who are part of the older, historically Democrat voting crowd, will definitely vote Obama. However, those Clinton supporters who worry about national security above issues such as abortion are likely to cross over to McCain. There’s lots of other issues that could push a person either way.
So, it seems to me that the only group who will not come out for McCain are those that are simply too angry at McCain about immigration issues to do so; the rest will get and and vote for him. Obama supporters by and large will NOT vote for Hillary, and Hillary supporters might get split right down the middle. Based on this analysis, I think Bennett’s comment is an accurate one; but is it a more important factor in a McCain vs Mrs. Clinton or a McCain vs. Obama race? I believe that it may actually be more instrumental in a McCain v Obama race. While Obama supporters will simply stay home if faced with a choice between McCain and Clinton, many Clinton supporters will cross over and give McCain a distinct advantage in a race against Obama. This is of course assuming that my anecdotal example of friends of mine who like Obama crossing over to vote McCain is not indicative of a larger trend- which it may be for all I know.
Based on this analysis, it’s my opinion that Obama is definitely the candidate to root for if you are a conservative-leaning voter, but more than that it is important that the Democratic primary process becomes as long and drawn-out as possible. For this reason, I’m rooting for Hillary to win both North Carolina and Indiana this week; not because I think she’ll be easier to beat in the general, just because the longer the dems argue and fight each other, the better it is for McCain (and by extension, the better it is for America).
