Archive for the 'McCain' Category

Election Eve

November 4, 2008

My prediction:

Obama wins, but not in a landslide, and not even by a sizable margin.

What is a landslide? If you ask me, it’s anything more than 450 electoral votes.  That was the kind of margin broken by the landslides of Reagan, Nixon, Eisenhower, FDR.

No, Obama wins by no more than- oh- 320, but probably more like 300.  Not an impressive margin by any means.

For those of you who think the definition of history is the past 2 elections (8 years), let me point out something.  President Bush won with 286 votes in 2004, and 271 votes in 2000.  However, prior to that, every elected president since Wilson in 1914 won with more than 300 electoral votes (well- ok- carter won with 297). With the exceptions of Truman, Kennedy, Nixon’s first win, and Carter, they ALL won by more than 350 electoral votes.

I hear people are saying “HUGE MARGIN! LANDSLIDE! MANDATE!

Um, no.

Another thing: the popular vote. I predict that Obama will not win by any more than a 6% margin.  Is this by any measure a big margin? Absolutely not.

Now that being said, McCain does have a chance. Not even a long shot chance, but a decent one. Having read and listened to waaay too many people’s opinions on this race, I’ll offer some tips on how to watch the returns. These are free of charge, and therefore worth no more than that.

If you are a McCain supporter, please do not lose hope until the very end; however the time to begin weeping is if you see that Obama has won any combination of two on the following list of states: Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.  Another way of saying this is that McCain can only afford to lose one of any of those states. If he loses one of those, but wins all of this second tier list: Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, and Indiana, then he will be hurting.

If McCain loses one of the states on the top tier and one on the second tier, however, then move your attention to the following list: Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa. McCain has to win at least 3, but probably all 4 of those states (depending on which 2 states in the first and second tier he lost).

To sum up, here are McCain’s paths to victory: win Florida, Ohio, AND Pennsylvania. Failing that, win North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana AND Georgia. Failing that, he has a last ditch opportunity to win with Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, AND Nevada.

If he can’t do that, then it is over. And I’m just being honest here: it doesn’t look good.

Does Barack Obama inspire you?

October 27, 2008

If you find Barack Obama to be an inspirational figure, then you are not alone. A quick google of “Barack Obama inspiration” reveals that many people feel the same way. Even I find Barack Obama to be an inspiration- though I expect not in a way he would find edifying.  But I digress.

I would like to ask a simple question: what, exactly, does Barack Obama inspire you to do? Think about that for a second.

There are many possible answers to that question.  Perhaps he inspires you to serve your country in the military. Does he inspire you to volunteer at a homeless center, pregnancy center, or church? Maybe he inspires you to act more lovingly toward your family.  He may inspire you to kick a drug habit, study harder in school, or eat a more healthy diet.  Unfortunately I really don’t see how Obama particuarly inspires one to do anything like the above, and I haven’t met anyone yet over the past two Obama-focused years who told me, “you know, because of Barack Obama I’m going to do ____”.

If I may be so bold as to hazard a guess, I would say that Obama inspires you to… drum roll… well, vote for Barack Obama.

Some of you might find this observation to be an unfair one; after all, in my experience, when pressed Obama fans are likely to say “he inspires me to get involved.” However, again I inquire, what does get involved mean?  Well, it means to get involved by… voting for Barack Obama.  Perhaps it also means to convince others to… vote for Barack Obama.

Inspiration ought to be about more than good feelings. Unfortunately, emotion passes for substance in this world.

A person might ask me, “well smarty pants, what does John McCain inspire you to do, eh?” I must confess, I don’t find the man to be particularly inspiring. Oh sure, his POW story is an inpirational one, but I’d be lying if I were to say it inspired me to go out and join the military- I haven’t, and besides, my sister, cousin, and grandfather are more likely to inspire me in that way than McCain.

But you see, that’s the entire point. Inspiration is great, but it is not a necessary facet of a potential presidential package.

My dear Obama supporter, I encourage you not to look toward Barack Obama as your source of inspiration.  He is a politician, and more than that, only a man.  He will always let you down.

Key difference between the Right and the Left #408582: the Left is inspired by politicians; the Right tolerates them.

ADDENDUM: The question strikes me: is the Right inspired by Ronald Reagan? Certainly. Does this invalidate my assertion about the difference the Left and the Right? No. There is a fundamental difference here: Reagan inspires me to hold fast to the values he represents, which I already hold. I am not inspired by Reagan so much as his values.

Obama supporter, do you hold the same values as Barack Obama? Do you believe in the socialist dictum of “spread the wealth around”? Do you want a European/Canadian style, government-run, single-payer (read: socialist) healthcare system? Are you willing to give up the benefits of global free trade in favor of protectionist economic policies that will lead us, like Herbert Hoover’s policies did, into a second Great Depression? Is abortion on demand up to and after a baby’s birth a value you hold dear? Are you in favor of more judges being put on the SCOTUS who will interpret the Constitution according to how their heart leads them, and according to the trends of the other state courts around the world instead of according to the meaning intended by the founders of our country? If so, by all means- let him inspire you all the way into the voting booth.  I don’t begrudge you your opinions.  If not, don’t let emotion deceive you into voting for a person you don’t actually agree with because “he inspires me to get involved.”

Vapid.

Pennsylvania, strategy, and speculation

October 22, 2008

Apparently the McCain campaign is spending copious amounts of money and time in PA lately in an effort to eat away at Obama’s lead there.

I don’t know if this is good strategy or not.  If McCain were to get PA (21 votes), that would basically negate the dire need for wins in Colorado, New Hampshire, and Nevada (total of 18 votes).  It’s been the conventional wisdom for a while now that the winner of Colorado this year is the winner. Maybe McCain- in a very McCainesque way, love it or hate it- is trying to buck the conventional wisdom.

But even if he gets PA, he simply MUST get Virginia AND Florida (that is unless you get 3 of NH, NV, CO, MN and WI, but that is not going to happen).  I have to believe he will certainly get at least one of Florida and Virginia. He also might be trying to get MN and/or WI, which throws a wrench into my whole analysis.  If he does not get at least one of Virginia and Florida- how do I put this nicely?- then McCain never had a real chance to begin with.

The real question, though, is: can McCain really win PA? Realclearpolitics has him down by 11 points at the moment; at the same time, an internal Obama campaign poll has Obama ahead by only 3.  Who dost thou believeth?

I don’t know.  However, It sure makes it easier for McCain when western PA’s own Dem Congressman (Murtha) is out there calling them racist (which he did apologize for) and then rednecks a little bit later.

I have some friends living in PA.  Let me use the miniscule influence I have and ask those people: please.  Get out and vote for John McCain on Nov 4th, and urge your friends and family to do the same.  This state’s vote is crucial.

A Plausible President Palin Scenario

October 17, 2008

Follow me on this, because it could really happen.

On election night, the electoral map looks something like the following 2 scenarios (there are actually many more of them, but these are probably the most plausible):

(click to embiggen)
The electoral college count is Barack Obama with 269 votes, and John McCain also with 269 votes.

Now we’ve all had eighth grade government classes at some point; some of us will recall that in this eventuality, the decision for the President goes to the House of Representatives and the decision for Veep is made by the Senate.  However it was not at all immediately clear to me, thinking about this today, what that would mean.  Does the current 110th congress vote, or is it the newly elected congress which assembles January 3rd of 2009 that will make this decision?

According to the 12th Amendment, “the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President.” So it is the current House delegation that chooses the President, and not the newly elected House.  Does this mean that it is a forgone conclusion that Obama will be President then, since the current House has a 31-seat majority of Democrats?  Far from it.  The 12th Amendment goes on to say that “in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote… and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice.”

Didya catch that?  There are not 435 votes cast such as the case with legislation.  Instead, each state’s delegation is allocated 1- and only 1- vote.  California receives 1 vote, and Wyoming receives 1 vote.  So how does this shake down with the current US House?  Currently, the Democrats have a 1 state majority (26 to 24), but this could be potentially meaningless:

It might be difficult for this majority to hold. After all, two of the Democrats’ twenty-six states are North Dakota and South Dakota, both of which will probably go for the Republican by a 2-1 margin in the popular election, and both of which are represented in the House by single members, Democrats Earl Pomeroy and Stephanie Herseth, respectively. Could both of them be counted upon to vote with their party? Could Mike Castle, the sole Republican from Delaware, be counted upon to vote with his party? Maybe, maybe not. The bottom line is that the Democratic majority in this instance would be relatively small and tenuous. There might very well be no decision reached…

NO DECISION REACHED?! I can hear the screams of the talking heads all over television now: “Constitutional crisis! Constitutional crisis! Constitutional crisis!”

This is no crisis, however; the 12th Amendment has a provision: if the House of Representatives shall not choose a President whenever the right of choice shall devolve upon them, before the fourth day of March next following, then the Vice-President shall act as President…”

The Veep becomes President, and this choice is the Senate’s.  Ah yes, the Senate: that erudite body of dispassionate souls.  First of all, it’s interesting to note that both McCain and Obama get to vote for their perspective running mates, and that Joe Biden gets to vote for himself.  Even more interesting to note: the current Senate has 49 Republicans and 51 Democrats (actually 50 Democrats, but Independent Bernie Sanders would vote with the Democrats anyway), HOWEVER, Democrat #51 Joe Lieberman supports John McCain for President.  The Senate vote tallies 50 to 50, another tie.  As we all know, the Vice President’s only constitutional duty is to cast a vote in the case of a tie in the Senate.

Dick Cheney casts his vote, and on March 4th, 2009, Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska is inaugurated as the 44th President of the United States.

One last thing: even if the House is able to make a decision, there is still a very high liklihood (given a 269 to 269 tie) that we will have a Democrat President Barack Obama and a Republican Vice President Sarah Palin.

Teddy Roosevelt my rear end

October 8, 2008

McCain at the debate last night:

You know, my hero is a guy named Teddy Roosevelt.

I’ll be totally candid here: this line perfectly illustrates why, this morning, I am thinking McCain is going to lose in a landslide.  This line made me physically ill.

I agree with George Will on TR.  A good test for a person’s conservative bonafides is “Who would you have voted for in the 1912 election?”

The correct answer is TAFT.

You can’t out liberal a liberal, Mr. McCain.

Presidential Debate Numero Dos

October 7, 2008

One word: lame.

The debate tonight was awful. Just awful. Boring. Uninformative.

I hate politicians. But I like Tom Brokaw even less.

YOUR QUESTIONS SUCKED, TOM!

VP debate live blog wrap up

October 2, 2008

I think she came very close to doing what she needed to do but am not certain she did it.  Time will tell, but Biden was excellent. No mistakes from either one. Nothing embarrassing.

And most importantly- it wasn’t boring. Most of it.

I’m walking away feeling like it was a tie, but that Palin definitely kept hope alive for the ticket.  I think the enthusiasm is revived for her now.  It certainly is in me.

VP debate live blog

October 2, 2008

I’ve decided that I’m going to live blog the vp debate tonight.

Not that I actually think anyone will care much about what I think; it’s more of just a way to procrastinate from doing work.

So now. The debate starts in 3 minutes.

The conventional wisdom on the news channels: Palins has everything to prove tonight.  Her best advice? Be herself.

Biden, however, has little to prove, but his best advice would be to be anything but his gas-bag self.  If I start feeling my eyes glaze over, and if Palin can come in and capitalize on that, I think that will greatly affect the perceived outcome.

Ok. 30 seconds. This should be interesting.

Suspended!

September 24, 2008

It’s all over the news right now that McCain is suspending his campaign and heading to Washington in order to help get this financial stuff figured out. The debate Friday looks like it will be canceled and he’s asking Obama to join him in Washington so the parties can “put aside differences” and get things done.

This is a great political move by McCain, but the best part about it is that I think that for him, the political reasons for this are secondary. We are talking about a man who staked his reputation on the belief that the surge in Iraq would be a success. I truly believe that the primary reason McCain is doing this is because he truly believes in his campaign’s mantra: “Country First”.

The question now is: what does Obama do now?

A minute ago, Drudgereport had a link up top to CNN saying “Obama says campaign suspension not necessary…”, but it disappeared a second later. Does this mean the Obama camp had a knee-jerk reaction but was instantly having second thoughts? It’s possible. In the instant-news, split-second-update world which we live in these days, it may be that someone on the Obama team made a statement that was immediately suppressed while they figure out what they want to do with this.

I think Obama’s best move here would be to go to Washington, but to find a way to one-up McCain’s country first mantra while there. How? I don’t know. What I do know is, if the reaction I saw on Drudge is the one that sticks, Obama will pay a heavy price in the polls.

UPDATE: Obama says the debate is on!

Wow. Just wow. Bad move by Barack.  If he keeps at this, this news cycle is lost for him.

The speech Sarah Palin wasn’t allowed to give

September 22, 2008

Sarah Palin and Hillary Clinton were both invited to speak at a rally today against Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and a nuclear Iran.  Clinton, after finding out Palin was coming, opted out.  Which is fine- she can do what she likes.  Unfortunately, Palin was then disinvited by rally organizers.  The reason for this is not clear to me.

However, below is the text of the speech she would have given today.  It’s pretty great.

I am honored to be with you and with leaders from across this great country - leaders from different faiths and political parties united in a single voice of outrage.

Tomorrow, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will come to New York - to the heart of what he calls the Great Satan - and speak freely in this, a country whose demise he has called for.

Ahmadinejad may choose his words carefully, but underneath all of the rhetoric is an agenda that threatens all who seek a safer and freer world. We gather here today to highlight the Iranian dictator’s intentions and to call for action to thwart him.
He must be stopped.

The world must awake to the threat this man poses to all of us. Ahmadinejad denies that the Holocaust ever took place. He dreams of being an agent in a “Final Solution” - the elimination of the Jewish people. He has called Israel a “stinking corpse” that is “on its way to annihilation.”

Such talk cannot be dismissed as the ravings of a madman -not when Iran just this summer tested long-range Shahab-3 missiles capable of striking Tel Aviv, not when the Iranian nuclear program is nearing completion, and not when Iran sponsors terrorists that threaten and kill innocent people around the world.

The Iranian government wants nuclear weapons. The International Atomic Energy Agency reports that Iran is running at least 3,800 centrifuges and that its uranium enrichment capacity is rapidly improving. According to news reports, U.S. intelligence agencies believe the Iranians may have enough nuclear material to produce a bomb within a year.

The world has condemned these activities. The United Nations Security Council has demanded that Iran suspend its illegal nuclear enrichment activities. It has levied three rounds of sanctions. How has Ahmadinejad responded? With the declaration that the “Iranian nation would not retreat one iota” from its nuclear program.

So, what should we do about this growing threat? First, we must succeed in Iraq. If we fail there, it will jeopardize the democracy the Iraqis have worked so hard to build, and empower the extremists in neighboring Iran. Iran has armed and trained terrorists who have killed our soldiers in Iraq, and it is Iran that would benefit from an American defeat in Iraq.

If we retreat without leaving a stable Iraq, Iran’s nuclear ambitions will be bolstered. If Iran acquires nuclear weapons ? they could share them tomorrow with the terrorists they finance, arm, and train today. Iranian nuclear weapons would set off a dangerous regional nuclear arms race that would make all of us less safe.

But Iran is not only a regional threat; it threatens the entire world. It is the no. 1 state sponsor of terrorism. It sponsors the world’s most vicious terrorist groups, Hamas and Hezbollah. Together, Iran and its terrorists are responsible for the deaths of Americans in Lebanon in the 1980s, in Saudi Arabia in the 1990s, and in Iraq today. They have murdered Iraqis, Lebanese, Palestinians, and other Muslims who have resisted Iran’s desire to dominate the region. They have persecuted countless people simply because they are Jewish.

Iran is responsible for attacks not only on Israelis, but on Jews living as far away as Argentina. Anti-Semitism and Holocaust denial are part of Iran’s official ideology and murder is part of its official policy. Not even Iranian citizens are safe from their government’s threat to those who want to live, work, and worship in peace. Politically-motivated abductions, torture, death by stoning, flogging, and amputations are just some of its state-sanctioned punishments.

It is said that the measure of a country is the treatment of its most vulnerable citizens. By that standard, the Iranian government is both oppressive and barbaric. Under Ahmadinejad’s rule, Iranian women are some of the most vulnerable citizens.

If an Iranian woman shows too much hair in public, she risks being beaten or killed. If she walks down a public street in clothing that violates the state dress code, she could be arrested.

But in the face of this harsh regime, the Iranian women have shown courage. Despite threats to their lives and their families, Iranian women have sought better treatment through the “One Million Signatures Campaign Demanding Changes to Discriminatory Laws.” The authorities have reacted with predictable barbarism. Last year, women’s rights activist Delaram Ali was sentenced to 20 lashes and 10 months in prison for committing the crime of “propaganda against the system.” After international protests, the judiciary reduced her sentence to “only” 10 lashes and 36 months in prison and then temporarily suspended her sentence. She still faces the threat of imprisonment.

Earlier this year, Senator Clinton said that “Iran is seeking nuclear weapons, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps is in the forefront of that” effort. Senator Clinton argued that part of our response must include stronger sanctions, including the designation of the IRGC as a terrorist organization. John McCain and I could not agree more.

Senator Clinton understands the nature of this threat and what we must do to confront it. This is an issue that should unite all Americans. Iran should not be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons. Period. And in a single voice, we must be loud enough for the whole world to hear: Stop Iran!
Only by working together, across national, religious, and political differences, can we alter this regime’s dangerous behavior. Iran has many vulnerabilities, including a regime weakened by sanctions and a population eager to embrace opportunities with the West. We must increase economic pressure to change Iran’s behavior.

Tomorrow, Ahmadinejad will come to New York. On our soil, he will exercise the right of freedom of speech - a right he denies his own people. He will share his hateful agenda with the world. Our task is to focus the world on what can be done to stop him.

We must rally the world to press for truly tough sanctions at the U.N. or with our allies if Iran’s allies continue to block action in the U.N. We must start with restrictions on Iran’s refined petroleum imports. We must reduce our dependency on foreign oil to weaken Iran’s economic influence.
We must target the regime’s assets abroad; bank accounts, investments, and trading partners.

President Ahmadinejad should be held accountable for inciting genocide, a crime under international law.

We must sanction Iran’s Central Bank and the Revolutionary Guard Corps -which no one should doubt is a terrorist organization. Together, we can stop Iran’s nuclear program.

Senator McCain has made a solemn commitment that I strongly endorse: Never again will we risk another Holocaust. And this is not a wish, a request, or a plea to Israel’s enemies. This is a promise that the United States and Israel will honor, against any enemy who cares to test us. It is John McCain’s promise and it is my promise.

Thank you.